Member Article

UK "recession is over" according to NIESR

Growth estimates have shown that the UK is out of recession, as output grew by 0.8% in the three months up to September. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said that monthly estimates for GDP showed that output is growing. This contrasts figures from the Office of National Statistics released on Tuesday morning, which said Britain’s trade deficit widened in August by £2.5bn, and factory output fell significantly.

NIESR said: “The National Institute interprets the term “recession” to mean a period when output is falling or receding, while “depression” is a period when output is depressed below its previous peak. Thus, unless output turns down again, the recession is over, while the period of depression is likely to continue for some time.”

The institute commented further to say it did not expect output would recuperate to its 2008 peak until 2014. GDP figures were estimated from three-monthly averages, which showed growth of 0.1% in the quarter leading up to August. This improved in September, according to NIESR figures, however the institute highlighted that the bank holidays and Olympic Games during the period may have boosted figures. Growth may be closer to 0.2 or 0.3% if these events are taken into account.

This was posted in Bdaily's Members' News section by Miranda Dobson .