Greater Manchester’s growth ‘will accelerate over next decade’

Over the next ten years, Greater Manchester’s performance will significantly outstrip the average pace of growth in the North West of England, according to latest outputs by the conurbation’s forecasting model which were officially announced today.

It is now anticipated that Greater Manchester will experience 7.5% growth (100,000 additional net jobs) in employment levels between now and 2023. This compares with 5.7% employment growth for the North West region over the same period.

The Greater Manchester Forecasting Model (GMFM) also predicts that Greater Manchester’s population (currently 2.68m) will grow by as much as 5% (135,000 people) over the next decade, above the 3.3% rise expected for the North West.

GMFM is produced by Oxford Economics for New Economy on behalf of Greater Manchester and is designed to provide a consistent evidence base for use in strategy and policy development.

Up until 2023, GMFM anticipates an average 3% growth in Greater Manchester’s GVA (gross value added). This will total approximately £17.2bn by 2023 and is comparable to growth forecasts for both the North West and the UK.

Overall, these latest figures have been revised upwards slightly from last year’s forecast, in light of both the UK avoiding a widely anticipated triple-dip recession and with the 2011/12 double-dip recession since being revised away.

However, anticipated growth remains more modest than pre-recession trends and it is expected that unemployment and worklessness will continue to remain ‘stubbornly high’ with the expansion of the ageing population also presenting new challenges.

Dr Alexander Roy, head of research for New Economy, said: “GMFM relies on a solid evidence base and helps to plot a likely path for our economy over the course of the next few years. Whilst it should never be taken as the final word, forecasts like these are extremely useful in developing informed strategic plans. Indeed, there is much to be enthused by in this year’s revisions, which show the UK recovery is well underway.

“Faced with these forecasts, it’s up to policy makers and economic professionals to decide whether we simply prepare for these expectations or attempt to nudge trends in a certain direction. A wise response would be to try and achieve a balance of the two.

The 2013 update of GMFM was officially announced at an event held today by New Economy and Oxford Economics at Manchester Conference Centre.

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