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Greater Manchester JSA claimant count on track to fall below pre-recession levels

Latest figures show that 51,905 people were claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in Greater Manchester in June 2014 – a decrease of 3,937 (7.1%) when compared with the figure for May 2014 of 55,842.

The North West saw a slightly lower monthly decline of 7.0%, as did the whole of Great Britain at 6.6%. As a proportion of the resident working-age population however, 3.0% of people in Greater Manchester were claiming JSA in May – which is still higher than the North West (2.7%) and Great Britain (2.4%).

Youth unemployment (JSA claimants aged 16-24) in Greater Manchester decreased on a monthly basis between May and June, falling by approximately 1,090 to around 11,630. On an annual basis, the number of youth JSA claimants is 43.7% (9,025) lower than this time last year.

Long-term (6 months+) claimants in Greater Manchester declined in June 2014 to 24,820, down by a considerable 1,355 (5.2%) on the May figure. On an annual basis the number of long-term claimants is now 35.1% (13,430) lower than this time last year. The North West (33.4%) and Great Britain (31.7%) also saw annual declines in long-term claimants.

Stephen Overell, principal for skills and employment at New Economy, said: “It looks like there has been another strikingly large fall in the numbers of people claiming JSA in the three months to June.

“If the numbers moving off benefit continue at this rate, the claimant count will be back below pre-recession levels before the summer is over. At that point the economic recovery will become real for many more people.

“We need to be very cautious, however, about attributing the fall in JSA claimants to the strength of the economic recovery alone. These figures are not just about job creation. Benefit sanctioning will be driving some people to end their claim and some of this group will simply vanish off the radar rather than move into work.

“In addition, Greater Manchester’s claimant count should really be about 4,000 higher because some areas are trying out the new Universal Credit system on unemployed people, but are not counting them in the jobless totals. The JSA data greatly flatter the real labour market performance.”

This was posted in Bdaily's Members' News section by Simon Malia .