Member Article

Fresh falls in North West job-seeker figures

Latest government statistics show that 38,100 people were claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in Greater Manchester in November – a decrease of 3,700 (8.8%) when compared with the figure for October 2014 of 41,800.

Across the North West region, there was a monthly decline of 7.6%.

As a proportion of the resident working-age population, 2.2% of people in Greater Manchester were claiming JSA in November – still higher than the North West (2.1%) and Great Britain (2.0%).

Stephen Overell, principal for skills and employment at New Economy, said: “The run-up to Christmas is often a time when unemployment falls as employers take on additional temporary labour and today’s unemployment data for November confirms the trend.

“As has been the pattern in recent months the JSA claimant count has continued to fall rapidly – this time by 3,700 – and the improvement looks like it is benefiting both long-term claimants and young people. That should bring welcome economic news for Christmas for at least some families in Greater Manchester.

“But before we get too carried away with seasonal labour market cheer, it is important to remember a few sobering – if a little Scrooge-like - questions that overhang the jobs data.

“First, JSA statistics on their own do not tell us much about whether people are finding work after they move off benefit.

“ A much better picture of unemployment can be obtained if the roughly 7,000 unemployed claimants of Universal Credit - the government’s flagship welfare reform which is being introduced in Greater Manchester and the North West before its national roll-out in January - are added to those on JSA; the government is not yet counting these people and so the JSA data flatters the real jobs picture.

“Second, the other official measure of unemployment, the International Labour Organisation (ILO) measure, suggests some contradictory trends – for example, that unemployment among young people may actually have been increasing in 2014.

“Although the numbers claiming JSA are now well below their pre-recession level, the number of people officially unemployed in Greater Manchester remain significantly above it. This suggests that an improving economy alone does not explain the sharp drop in benefit claimants, but rather welfare reform in tandem with recovery lies behind the JSA improvement.

“Finally, there are enduring doubts about job quality that are likely to be a feature of the debate around work in 2015. Many jobs being created are insecure and relatively low paying, and which deliver only modest productivity gains. Hard thinking lies ahead about how to ensure more new jobs are skilled and pay decent wages.”

This was posted in Bdaily's Members' News section by Simon Malia .