Member Article

Employment growth in Yorkshire outperforming UK

Yorkshire and The Humber’s total employment has risen by 4.9% over the last three years (Q1 2010 – Q1 2013) outperforming the UK average of 3% according to PwC’s annual UK Economic Outlook.

The report is also projecting that the region will see 1.9% growth in 2014 up from 0.9% in 2013. Only slightly behind the UK’s predicted growth of 2% and the most growth of any other region in the North.

Nationally UK GDP growth is likely to pick up gradually to around 1% in 2013, rising to around 2% in 2014. This is slightly more optimistic than both the OBR and consensus forecasts, reflecting recent generally positive data about UK economic growth.

Arif Ahmad, office senior partner, PwC Leeds said: “These projected figures are positive news for the region after a period of generally disappointing growth in 2011 and 2012.

“And if our expected UK GDP growth is achieved it would make the UK the best performing of the large EU economies boosting confidence further, both nationally and in our region.

“Our employment growth is particularly positive though while workers aged between 50 and 65 have increased 9.2% in the region there has also been a 1.9% drop in employment for the 16-24year old age bracket.

“This is consistent with the rest of the UK and may in part, be due to the disappointing level of private sector pensions as result of the financial crisis. Average UK house prices in the region are also gradually starting to recover, but are unlikely to return to their previous 2007 peak levels in real (inflation-adjusted) terms until after 2020.

David Sparke, director and property expert, PwC Leeds added: “Over the next few years, we expect the recent gradual recovery in UK and house prices to continue with Yorkshire also experiencing steady increases in real terms.

“Affordability will remain an issue for many first time buyers with housing completions remaining subdued despite mortgage approvals picking up.

“And although recently introduced government initiatives to support the mortgage market are likely to boost demand in the short term, in the longer term other measures will be needed to address more fundamental problems related to lack of housing supply.

“We expect house prices to pick up at average rates of around 3-4% per annum in cash terms over the next four years, which is slightly higher on average than the consensus view.

“Based on our main scenario, average UK house prices might be back above their 2007 peak in cash terms as early as the end of 2014, but in real terms this might take until around 2021.”

This was posted in Bdaily's Members' News section by Mark Lane .